Oldmans Pick For Sunday 9/12/04

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Looking at the game between Cincinnati and the New York Jets. With all due respect to the coaching ability of Marvin Lewis, sense here is that this may be a very difficult spot for the regular season opener for Carson Palmer. He may be a great quarterback one day, but struggled at times in the preseason and will be facing a very talented and active defense playing in their home opener. Expect to see attacking and confusing looks to test Palmer. And the Bengal running game will not find it easy to run against the Jets new speedy front seven. Meanwhile, the Jets offense is really beginning to come into it's own behind Pennington with a quality offensive line and wideout Moss and the consistent running of Martin. On opening day, like the more balanced, experienced team at home laying a fair price. Hence,

1* New York Jets -4.5

NFL Record YTD: (2-0)(+2.00)

Plays are rated 1*-5*.

Good Luck All.

Edited record to reflect win by the New York Jets.
 

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absolutely dead on ted. this is one of the better plays on the board. pennington,moss,martin and co. along with an improved defense will be far to much for the bengals and the inexperienced palmer
 

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Good luck Ted, I have to say I like the Jets as well, and may take a shot at -1.5 or -2 (depending on juice) for first half. I will add to my thread for Sunday September 12th if I do.

Best of luck, wil.
 

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Wil:

Thanks. I don't play first halfs, but I know you're solid in doing so. Sounds like a pretty good play to me.

ag:

Glad to see we are in agreement. Best of luck to you today.

Also, for those interested, I may be back later with a release for the Sunday night game. Need to complete my evaluation. As always, hope everyone has a successful day today on this opening weekend of the NFL.
 

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OMT - Nice call Jets 31-24.


wil.
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Man has grown in power in all areas but self contr
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OMT,

Thanks for the great pick today. I cashed a ticket thanks to you. This is not the first time you have done this. I have a feeling it will not be the last.

Again thanks,
Uncle Leo
 

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Back as promised with my thoughts on tonight's game between the two teams that most likely will battle for supremacy in the AFC West. Some interesting developments have taken place with both teams following last year's games. Denver traded RB Clinton Portis for shutdown CB Champ Bailey and acquired S John Lynch as well as drafting LB D.J. Williams from Miami,Fla. to shore up their defense. Unfortunately, they lost RB Mike Anderson to a season ending groin injury and thus back-up Quentin Griffin is slated for full duty. They also lost TE Shannon Sharpe to retirement and, on defense, lost LB Ian Gold to free agency and LB John Mobley to a neck injury. Kansas City's main change was the rehiring of defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham to try and bring a more aggressive style of attack to their game, but unfortunately lost middle LB Mike Maslowski to a season ending knee injury.

Last year, in the game held in Denver, Kansas City held a 21-17 halftime lead before Portis rolled for 188 yards in the second half as the Broncos scored 28 straight points to win 45-27. Trent Green, however, completed 34-47 for 397 yards.

When evaluating these teams, let's first look at the Kansas City offense against the Denver defense. The Chiefs have a tremendous offensive line that has worked well together in providing room for a punishing running attack with Priest Holmes as well as providing time for Green to find TE Gonzalez and Holmes as their main receiving weapons. WR Morton is a threat as well, but no doubt Bailey will reduce his effectiveness. The Bronco defensive strength will now lie in the secondary as the front line and linebackers must prove that they can work together to stop the run as well as get pressure on Green although Lynch will surely help in that effort. As to the Denver offense against the Chief's defense, the key will be how effective a job Cunningham has done to prepare this team to be aggressive. Skill wise, the Broncos really are marginal with Plummer, at times, being inconsistent and the running game no longer having either Portis or Anderson, although Griffin is quick and agile. The receiving corp loses Sharpe but may improve with the development of it's younger receivers. Thoughts here are that the Kansas City's offense is now facing a defense that has added some talent but mostly in the secondary and should be able to move the ball on the ground and enough with short passing to Gonzalez and Holmes to keep the chains moving. Meanwhile, it remains an open question as to how effective the Denver offense will be against the style that Cunningham will present. Can never underestimate the coaching ability of Shanahan or the fact that Denver plays very well to open each season and particularly at home and the Chiefs have not had great success in Denver. That being said, sense here is that the Chiefs are truly the better team. Hence,

1* Kansas City +3

Good Luck All.
 

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OMT,

When you are hot you are hot. I'm with you simplely out of principle.

Uncle Leo
 

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